Since this area plays such a strong role in the democratic politics/ideals in this state, & since one of our own might join the race, I think this will be an interesting topic for discussion.
Secretary of State Elaine Marshall vs Durham Lawyer Kenneth Lewis vs Captain in the United States Army Reserve & former State Senator Cal Cunningham vs Mayor Kevin Foy
vs 
vs 
vs 
Here is some more background on the candidates:
N&O profiles:
http://projects.newsobserver.com/profiles/elaine_marshall
http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/profiles/kenneth_lewis
http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/profiles/cal_cunningham
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Foy (I couldn't find an N&O profile for Foy so I just used a wiki page, although ppl on this blog are probably most familiar w/ him already)
http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/foy_still_thinking (& here is a story about him still thinking about it in which he "hopes to decide by the end of the month"
Facebook groups/fanpages
Elaine Marshall: http://www.new.facebook.com/home.php#/group.php?gid=101700230921
Kenneth Lewis: http://www.new.facebook.com/pages/Kenneth-Lewis/97128081749
Cal Cunningham: http://www.new.facebook.com/group.php?gid=106543775883
Whoever wins this primary will be up against Republican incumbant Senator Richard Burr. This is the same Burr who
suggested to his family to do a bank-run when the economy got tight,
the same Burr who stood against Tammy Duckworth's attempts to help
veterans, the same Burr who thinks domestic abuse should count as a
pre-existing health condition whereby you ought to be denied insurance
coverage, and the same Burr that voted against an anti-rape amendment,
the same Burr who supports a a
constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, and the same Burr who is anti-choice.
I am hoping for a field of candidates that create some buzz about the primary and have strong issue focused debates wherein candidates don't tear each other down, and instead explain whey they'd be better than Burr. I think this will help with name recognition which is key in taking down an incumbant. I think right now is a particularly interesting time to look at this primary, because now is when candidates decide if they are in or out. Marshall & Lewis are definitely in. Cunningham is out at the momemt but may rejoin soon, and Foy is hoping to make a decision by the end of the month.
Who do you think can win in the primary, who do you think can win against Burr, who are you pulling for, and why? What issues do you hope to hear them address?
Issues:
Comments
Responses to my questions
...on LGBT equality.I decided to make this a seperate post, because I want this to be a discussion of all the issues and not to highlight a particular one over another. This issue however is important to me, as it affects my day to day life as a citizen very directly (& I could more often rely on eithers to ask questions relating to the economy & the environment), and so I have sought out answers about this from various candidates. In the past I've had to "corner" candidates at public events and ask them these sorts of questions. But in this case all of the ones I have asked have responded to me in an online format which I think is telling in regards to how much this state has changed. Anyone who remembers Dole's attempts to paint Hagan as a gay marriage loving atheist knows how much that backfired. Here are their answers (in some cases depending on the format I got into specifics like ENDA, DADT, DOMA & in others it was a more general question on lgbt equality - I was trying to both educate these potential legislators while asking them questions) Secretary of State Elaine Marshall
Durham Lawyer Kenneth Lewis
Captain in the United States Army Reserve & former State Senator Cal Cunningham
Kevin Foy
I think Kevin not only would make a great Senator, but may have the best chance of defeating Burr. He would be an excellent campaigner.
Chapel Hill Democrat
I keep hearing people dismiss him as a "Chapel Hill Democrat"Like, "oh he'd be great, but he's a Chapel Hill Democrat" and then move on to talking about the other candidates.Why is this perception so? What is so wrong with being a Democrat from Chapel Hill. Perhaps I should first ask, is this perception so, or do I need to widen my net.If he does jump into it, I would like to see him do a BlueNC live-blog event, get a facebook group going, get a profile up on the N&O, get a campaign website up, and so forth which most of the other candidates already have.For my money, 4 candidates during the primary raises more awareness about the challenges to Senator Burr than could 2 or 3, and so I hope he does jump in. I guess we'll know soon enough with only a little over a week left until the expected decision time.
Durham Lawyer
Maybe the same people who call Kevin Foy a Chapel Hill democrat dismiss Kenneth Lewis as a Durham lawyer.
Foy could represent a change from the old
Voters are generally looking to move beyond the "gutter-ball" politics that we are mired in. (Today's N&O had a blurb about Marshall sending out find-raising solicitations to a list including a multitude of corporate lobbyists.) Kevin could really tap into that sentiment.
Yeah, I got said solicitation too
It was an e-mail to everyone asking for $18 on her birthday on the 18th. What are your thoughts as to whether Foy will actually run or not? And what can be done to encourage him to run?
The reason that people write
The reason that people write off someone as a "CH Democrat" is that although CH is a left town in general, which isn't a big deal, the most politically active segment of CH are farther left and since only 15% of CHers vote, those people have a larger say in who gets into office. So, as a candidate for mayor of CH, your choices are (1) agree with and/or cater to the segment of the population that votes, or (2) lose. Kevin Foy won several times. But the segment that votes here is much different than the voters in the state at large. Ask yourself this question. Of the people that voted for CH mayor last month, what percentage do you think voted for Obama last year? Next, compare that to the 49.7% that voted for Obama statewide. The point is, the people that vote for mayor in CH (which is always in off-year elections that consequently doesn't bring out people interested in voting for President or Senator) are much different than those that vote for US Senator, especially if we're talking about a general election instead of a Democratic primary.
CH has explored policies that others adopt
Chapel Hill has a history of progressive policy-making. Many policies that Chapel Hill has adopted are emulated and later adopted by other municipalities. Their affordable housing model has attracted interest across the Southeast. Chapel Hill was awarded first place for the City Livability Award during the 2009 Mayors' City Livability Awards Program. The free transit program has been much admired. Energy efficiency policies were adopted many years before even the utilities began to tout energy efficiency as an important strategy.Our society is in a state of crisis and there is an understanding that we need to change the way we do a lot of things. Kevin Foy's experience with these successful progressive policies puts him at the forefront of those running.
I'm not sure about the point about
President Obama. My guess is a lot of people in this area voted for him, but since he also won the state I'm not sure that is a great example of how the voters preferences here are out of line with the rest of the state, if that was the point you were trying to make. But I may be misunderstanding what you're saying there.
My point is as follows,
My point is as follows, using numbers that may not be exactly right but I'm using it to make the larger point. Obama won NC about 50-49. But how bad did he win in CH/C? Say it's 63-37. Next, amongst the voters in CH/C mayor and TC elections in 2007 or 2009, how badly did Obama win? I mean, when those 2007 or 2009 voters voted for President in 2008? Do you think it was greater than 63-37 for Obama or less than that? I think it was greater. A Presidential election brings out a wider spectrum of people. An election with only local offices on the ballot tends to bring out the more dedicated voters and they are more likely to be to one side or the other, which in the case of CH/C means more left.What I'm saying is that voters in CH/C in general are more left than voters in NC as a whole, and voters in CH/C local elections are more left than voters in CH/C in general. So the voters that local candidates have to appeal to are way more left than voters in NC as a whole.
double posted
after I made an edit?
I think its fair to say
that Chapel Hill leans left of most cities in NC.But I am also under the impression that presidential elections tend to draw a higher percentage of younger voters than do local elections for most towns, and thus bigger elections tend to lean a little more left. I'm not sure if that holds for senate elections as the top of the ticket.I was chatting with Equality NC's exexutive director the other day on facebook and he repeated a notion I've heard many times on lgbt blogs. That it is safer to try to repeal prop 8 in 2012 than 2010 because an off year election will draw a more conservative crowd. And for people talking about the lose of marriage equality in Maine they say things like "and we came so close despite the fact that it was an off year vote"
Presidential vote by town
Here's what the presidential vote by town looks like :Orange County totalObama 53,086 71.83%McCain 20,266 27.05%Barr 522 0.70%Write-In 316 0.42% ==========Chapel Hill 19 precincts (includes all precincts wholly or partly in Chapel Hill IN ORANGE COUNTY except Patterson. Excludes Durham County precincts as they are heavily in unincorporated area and also have more Durham city than Chapel Hill town voters.)Obama 25,075 78.95%McCain 6,320 19.90%Barr 239 0.75%Write-In 128 0.40%===============Carrboro 8 precincts (includes all precincts wholly or partly Carrboro)Obama 12,000 83.53%McCain 2,206 15.36%Barr 83 0.57%Write-In 77 0.54% ============Remainder of Orange CountyObama 16,011 57.05%McCain 11,740 41.83%Barr 200 0.71%write-in 111 0.39%
I agree and you can
find more information about Mayor Foy by going to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Foy
Kenneth Lewis lives in Estes Hills
You do know that Kenneth Lewis lives in Estes Hills precinct, right?
I did not.
Foy is the only person whose location I had any familiarity with as a Chapel Hill Mayor until very recently. When Cunningham was out and there was discussion of other races he could possibly get into over on BlueNC I looked up where he lived on his facebook account in the hopes that maybe he could challenge Foxx... although now I think he's most likely to get back into the race. I don't know where Marshall is from either, but I now feel prompted to look that up.
I was just going off his N&O profile and descriptions I have seen elsewhere."Maybe the same people who call Kevin Foy a Chapel Hill democrat dismiss Kenneth Lewis as a Durham lawyer. "I hadn't considered that. I wish that none of the candidates would actually get dismissed out of hand. I'd like to see them all run.Kenneth Lewis was the first to jump into the race, the first to do a live blog on bluenc, and the first to respond to my questions about lgbt equality (which in some past elections have been somewhat ignored) and set the tone for a more open honest discussion of lgbt issues. It is kind of cool to think I live in an adjacent precinct to Mr. Lewis here in Booker Creek.I'm not sure of the Durham Lawyer description is a dimissial though, I mean it seems hard to dismiss the first and for a while only candidate who was in the race. Especially with hiring Trippi which seems like a strong move for his campaign. Certainly in the conversations I've had with friends around here, with classmates over in Raleigh, and online, I haven't heard Lewis being dismissed the way Foy has been. Although I have heard a generic meme of none of the candidates are as serious of contenders as Roy Cooper could have been.
A Series of Small Updates
this isn't anything close to an official announcement. But it seems like the Cal Campaign enginges are firing up again based on a message that was sent out today. Here is the first part of it:
-------------------------------- http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/foy_still_thinking As mentioned before Foy "hopes to decide by the end of the month" and that month ended about an hour ago. Think we'll hear something out of him this week now that he's presumably had the holiday weekend to mull it over and talk with family about it? Anyone care to make predictions? --------------------------------More signs of a possible Cunningham run out today: http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2009/12/cunningham_to_r.php
andhttp://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1209/In_switch_Cunningham_planning_to_run_against_Burr.html?showall
--------------------------------Another campaign related update. The Kenneth Lewis official campaign kick off event is happening soon:http://www.democratsenators.org/o/49/t/880/signUp.jsp?key=1342
--------------------------------A source like Hotlineoncall isn't one I'm particularly familiar with, but this one seems a little more well known on the whole Cunningham likely to get into the race thing:http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/nc-sen-democrats-get-cunn...
What does Cunningham stand for?
The DSCC has a dismal record of supporting Republican-lite, Obama-type candidates whose progressive veneer melts at the first sign of real debate.
Some content here
It'll be hard to know all his stances until they get a campaign website up and running, but there are a few videos out there of Cal addressing various groups which may have some content there. And of course I have some idea where he stands on lgbt equality, as I mentioned earlier in the thread, because he sent me a facebook message responding to my question saying where he stands. I am also not sure that we should consider DSCC support of him as a bad thing. Besides whoever the primary winner needing all the support they can get to beat Burr, Cal was out there unofficially campaigning back when the DSCC was courting the likes of Cooper & Etheridge, so at least if the DSCC's thinking process is "lets pick the most republican-lite candidate we can find" they didn't go to Cal first or second. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=In9qD5Hnp2Qhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbb_vYhal84http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fv3xyh-K41o And there may be more links to info/videos/news coverage on the facebook group:http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=106543775883 In other campaign news, Lewis picked up an endorsement today (here is a narrowed down version of the e-mail the campaign sent out to supporters that I recieved earlier today):
Litmus test
Does he support the Bush/Cheney/Gates/Obama Afghanistan escalation? If he does, he should be targeted for defeat as either ignorant or a deceiver. If he opposes it with a solid explanation, we should all get behind him.
Sorry to see
http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/216734.html
I know losing a family member is hard enough, I can't imagine losing a signficant other, especially in the middle of a campaign, and especially so close to her birthday & the holidays. I've only ever spoken to her a few times, and only online, but my thoughts & sympathies are very much with her & her family at this time.
Foy is out
Kevin announced on his Twitter feed today that he won't be seeking the nomination:
Line Up
vs vs vs Unfortunate to see him go. I think the bigger the race is, the more attention it draws, and the more name recongition all the candidates can build so long as they stay positive, but I think as long as the field doesn't narrow any more until the primary is decided that we'll still be in good shape.
That's a disappointment
He would have been a solid progressive candidate.
No evidence of opposition to obscene Obama Af-Pak War
I just poked around and Cunningham has nothing to to show on the bankrupt foreign policy that Obame has embraced. Not a hint. That is evidence of not being on top of the game.
Any evidence from Lewis or Marshall
taking strong anti-Obama foreign policy stances from their pre-official campaign launch days?I think once Cunningham officially launches a campaign, probably in the next couple of weeks, and has a website up with an issues section we'll be better able to judge where he stands (although obviously track record counts a lot too, & hopefully that kind of info would be in an issues section), but right now as best I can tell none of the candidates, even those with officially launched campaigns & campaign websites, have issue sections. And the President's surge until 2011 plan hasn't been public all that long for people to respond to as compared to domestic issues issues like healthcare, domestic violence, & Burr's anti-rape amendment vote which all the candidates & likely candidates seem to be addressing.Maybe that means all the democratic candidates are not at the top of their game, or maybe it just means it is early yet. I would like to see debates as soon as possible to help flesh out all their stances though. I know absolutely none of the candidates took stances on lgbt issues this early until I asked them individually, maybe you could reach out to them this? I know Mark K seemed to know Cal a little & thought he was good guy, which makes me think he is of good character, but I too would like to know about his issues before deciding who to vote for in the primary (if the vote were held today I'd probably go for Lewis, but I'm not leaning strong one way or another, its still very much dead heat for me). Right now I'd take all 3 of the candidates over Burr. I don't know whether he supports ending the wars before 2011 or not, but he certainly seems to be holding those involved in misconduct accoutable:
No evidence from Lewis or Marshall either
I'm just not going to vote for any more war supporters. Kay Hagan, David Price, Beverly Perdue, Obama, etc.
Cal is in
From a facebook group message:
Campaign website (there is a short video on why he's running on the front page): http://www.calfornc.com/ (just noticed I said "Cal in in" rather than "Cal is in" & am correcting. originally Submitted by Jake Gellar-Goad on Mon, 12/07/2009 - 1:58pm)
Democratic Winds
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_1217.pdfAccording to poll numbers President Obama is back in positive territory in terms of support from North Carolinians and it looks like that is largely based on a bump from independents.With that in mind these polling numbers from earlier in the week, which show the candidates narrowing the gap between themselves & Burr (3 months ago the gap was as wide as 16 points & now the narrowest is at 5 points), it looks like thetides are turning, or at least nuetralizing. The link also calls Burr the most vunerable republican incumbent in the country. All this looks like good news to me. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_1216.pdf
Elaine Marshall opposes the Af-Pak War
And that us a huge indication of her intellignece and humanity.