Results in the at-large Commissioner race

I don't know why or how Mary Wolff did so well in rural Orange, but it's certainly not about race. Cheeks and Carr are heavily African American and that's part of the reason I implored Neloa Jones to campaign heavily here. In fact, Leo Allison did well in some of the same precincts where Mary Wolff did well.

I think it's far more likely that Neloa was simply an unknown in rural Orange and Wolff was the anti-Pelissier vote.

Mike, while Cheeks has a large black population, whites still make up about half the Dem primary vote there, probably 2/3 in Efland and many of them are conservative Democrats. It was different folks voting for different candidates in different races for different reasons, if that makes sense, that gave what may appear to be contradictory results, like Wolff and Allison both winning Cheeks. Allison is the Democratic Party precinct chair of Cheeks and he worked the polls there himself most of the day, which is a major reason why he did much better against Yuhasz there (Yuhasz only got 22% in Cheeks) than in the district as a whole. Luther Brooks was second in Cheeks and that is reflective of the large black vote there (Cheeks has the third largest % of black voters, West Hillsborough is first, Carr Store is second but small, Cheeks is also one of the largest precincts in the county). 

And it couldn't have been about race anyway in the AL seat, since the number 1 and 2 candidates were white. Wolff took votes from Pelissier up here, not from Jones. As I posted earlier, Mrs. Wolff's showing up here was about ideology, not race. And Mr. Wolff's votes up here, and he'll do well in November up here, will be about the same thing. But in November, he can also get votes of GOP voters too, which she couldn't get in the primary.

Speaking of that, I've been arguing for years that all elections need  a binding "none of the above" vote option, where if "none of the above" gets the most votes a new election with new candidates is forced by law.

http://www.nota.org/

This would be particularly useful in races that are unopposed.

Mike Swaim, this works in theory, but I'd be afraid the NOTA vote would serve as a "don't know" option more often than a "don't like" option.  "Don't like" is an informed choice.  Voters who don't know would use it as an out.  I wish the ballot would say, "If you don't know, don't vote for any of these candidates." 

Mary Wolff couldn't possibly have gotten 30% of the commissioner vote because of her ideology.  What ideology?  She didn't campaign enough to express one.   I believe we're looking at quite a few "don't know" voters here.  

If it was just "don't know" voters, her strength would have been spread around more evenly, not just in northern Orange. for whatever reason, she was the choice of the conservative Democrats up here. And my guess is they were correct, she was the most conservative of the three.

I would rank Ms. Pelissier the better known candidate. Then Ms. Wolff and Ms. Jones in rural Orange.

Don't know how much Ms. Pelissier campaigned in the rural areas? I do know that she and her supporter played up the environmental tag and there are those who think she would be a "great addition to the Board". There are others who desire more diverse opinions on our Board of Commission and I believe those votes were cast for Ms. Wolff and Ms. Jones.

As a side bar to this discussion I fine it interesting that with the transfer tax being defeated so badly. How will this affect the elected leaders in this county/cities as proposed property tax increases are debated? Their votes may stoke the fires for the fall elections. Were you listening to the voters on May 6th may be a rally cry.

Interesting -- in Morehead early voting it was Pelessier 45.9, Wolfe 37.7. This was Wolff's strongest showing in Chapel Hill and Bingham Townships (the area of the county south of Hillsborough).  Why? This box was mostly students. Was Wolff campaigning at that precinct? Did her signs have an unusual impact there?  Did a DTH story about her signs have an impact among voters least likely to be following the race?

I did a spreadsheet showing the dropoff from the Presidential vote to the At-Large commissioner race.  The northern part of the county had the least dropoff, meaning their votes were magnified relative to many southern Orange voters who skipped the race. Below see the percentage dropoff, highest first, by precinct.  County wide it average 31.1%. Almost half the Battle Park voters skipped the race!  In Northern Orange the dropoff range varied from 15% to 26%.  In Chapel Hill Township it ranged from 26% to 46%.  No Chapel Hill/Carrboro precinct had less dropoff than any northern Orange precinct

Kevin Wolff & his young son were working the Orange Grove poll.

 Anyone who saw a commissioners forum or read any of the candidates issue statements could not help but conclude that Bernadette was a superior candidate by any comparison to her rivals - and one of the most prepared and thoughtful candidates to ever run for commissioner. Neloa, by her own admission, knew very little about local government or many of the issues beyond the Rogers Road situation. Mary Wolff was lost & clearly winging it at the forums. She only seemed at ease when she got to answer a question after Bernadette and could clumsily piggy-back on whatever she could learn from her answer.

 It's always interesting (and represents quite a challenge to campaigners) to see how many votes are cast on thin knowledge or for one-issue message sending. Especially when confronted with a candidate of Bernadette's stature.