Growth projections

The N & O's Orange Chat blog pointed out that the Durham Chapel Hill Carrboro Metropolitan Planing Organization's Draft 2035 Plan "is projecting that eastern Chatham County's population will be greater than Chapel Hill and Carrboro's combined within three decades."

According to the memo from Chapel Hil's Long Range Planning Coordinator David Bonk:

 
Jurisdiction Population Employment 2005 2035 % inc. 2005 2035 % inc. Chatham County* 34,629 153,362 343% 8,196 16,953 107% Durham County 229,796 370,007 61% 172,825 308,886 79% Carrboro 21,328 26,879 26% 4,320 6,751 56% Chapel Hill 52,394 81,297 55% 35,314 81,227 130% Hillsborough 12,651 22,613 79% 5,762 14,606 153% Orange County** 43,739 55,537 27% 3,946 7,255 84% *Includes the portion of Chatham County that is in the Triangle Regional Model area. **Includes the unincorporated areas of Orange County, i.e., NOT including Chapel Hill, Carrboro and Hillsborough.

[...]

All jurisdictions in the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban area project employment growth, ranging from a 56 percent increase in Carrboro to a 153 percent increase in Hillsborough over the 30-year period. With the exception of Chatham County, every jurisdiction has projected a higher percentage of employment growth than population growth over the 30-year period. While most communities will remain primarily residential in nature, the projections reflect increased employment growth.

Below are maps of projected employment and population change in the Chapel Hill-Carrboro area, and a map of the whole regional study area (click each to enlarge). Many more are available with David Bonk's memo.