This is as comprehensive an analysis as I could write for my 800 word column, but it's a start. I'm sure our many citizen pundits will have interesting perspectives to add.
As published in the Chapel Hill Herald on November 11th, 2006:
Despite being a ‘blue moon' election year with no major statewide races in North Carolina, Tuesday night's election has some interesting implications for Orange and Chatham Counties.
One lesson learned is that we have the most popular senator in the state. With 74 percent of the vote, Ellie Kinnaird received a higher percentage of votes than anyone else in a contested seat throughout North Carolina. While some people like to peg her as a liberal kook from Carrboro, the fact that she won all but one precinct in Orange County points to her wide appeal.
Another lesson confirmed is that a ballot initiative without an organized opposition will always pass. I predicted a month ago on www.orangepolitcs.org that since no organization had formed to fight district representation, the referendum would likely pass with 60-65% of the vote. It actually received 68% of the vote. If folks see a proposal on the ballot and have not heard any arguments against it, they'll generally assume it is fine and vote yes. I don't know if the results really reflect a great concern for representation of Orange County's rural minority or not, but at this point it doesn't really matter.
One of the big winners on Tuesday night was former Carrboro mayor Mike Nelson, who successfully sought a seat as an Orange County Commissioner. In the closing weeks of the campaign a small group of residents made an effort to cut into his support by falsely painting him as a merger supporter. The efforts were ineffective, as Nelson received nearly two and a half times as many votes as Republican Jamie Daniel.
Nelson will likely take particular pleasure from receiving the votes of percent of the folks at the new Hogan Farms precinct, where the residents of Carrboro's recently annexed Northern Transition Area vote. Although the folks angry about the annexation certainly make a lot of noise about it, Nelson's success shows that their political capital might be pretty limited.
This could have implications for next year's election. Some of the noisemakers in the annexed areas have promised to boot out the incumbents on the Carrboro Board of Aldermen. Their inability to do so to Nelson certainly calls into question their ability to do so to Mark Chilton, Joal Broun, Dan Coleman, and Alex Zaffron. If I was one of those folks I'd be breathing a little easier today.
The Superior Court race, in which I managed candidate Adam Stein's campaign, is still unsettled as the count of the provisional votes and a likely recount looms. Whatever the final result is, Allen Baddour has provided a model for how to run an effective campaign in a local judicial race.
In the primary, dominated by Democratic voters in both Orange and Chatham Counties, Stein took a thousand-vote lead. It is clear from the precinct-by-precinct data that in the general election, with many more Republicans voting, Baddour made large strides in northern Orange County precincts that went for Bush in 2004.
Baddour is certainly no Republican, nor were any of the other three candidates in the race. But it looks like Republican votes swung the race in his favor, and he must have had the strongest strategy of the three candidates fighting for the second seat behind Carl Fox for reaching out to them. In a closely contested race with four outstanding choices, it appears that may have made the biggest difference.
Of course in such a close race, just about anything could have made the difference. One person even told me they cast a ballot for Baddour because it looked like his father was on the cusp of bringing in former Miami coach Butch Davis to resurrect the football program! I doubt that impacted too many votes though.
It was another outstanding election cycle for the Orange County Democratic Party, whose volunteers ran as effective and efficient an operation this year as it did in 2004, even in the absence of a prominent campaign. They did a good job of turning out the vote and an even better job of ensuring everyone going to vote who wanted a sample ballot showing who the statewide Democratic choices in judicial races were got one.
No doubt state Supreme Court Judge-elect Robin Hudson, whose 11,000 vote victory in Orange County accounted for more than half of her statewide winning margin of 20,000 votes, is appreciative of the efforts made by local volunteers.
This election reflected positively on the level of civic engagement in Orange and Chatham Counties, and showed that for the most part we're pleased with our current elected officials. I'm sure many local residents are happy above all else that the robo calls and expensive mailers will stop coming.
Issues:
Comments
Yes, RC, the last 6 years
Yes, RC, the last 6 years under the Republicans has been so nice fiscally. I guess those beautiful days of thrift and small government are over now that the Dems are in power.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/briefs/bp-087es.html
There is now a link at
There is now a link at http://www.northcarolinarepublicans.org
to a comprehensive poll regarding this recent election that
shows among other things that democrats outspent Republicans
over 2:1 to achieve their marginal victories.
How does everyone feel that the democrat victory will affect our taxes on a local level? People are, apparently expecting higher taxes.
Republican Commando
http://www.northcarolinarepublicans.org
Conservative, non-partisan, er.. well.. sort of... ;-)
Not divisiveness Will,
Not divisiveness Will, simply clarification. Only the tax payers in Carrboro will be paying for the new sidewalks though all county residents are surely welcome to use them.
And so the districting
And so the districting divisiveness begins... I thought we'd at least wait until the 2008 elections before the consequences of a "house divided" kicked in...
Marty, how would you respond in District 1 folks started saying "I'm glad we're not spending our tax dollars repairing roads in Northern Orange county"?
I for one was happy to see
Marty, just for the record, Carrboro citizens dug in their own pockets and found $4.6 million for those sidewalks.
Hey Marty, I don't think
Hey Marty, I don't think that district representation would have had much impact on Carrboro's sidewalk bond. That burden is being shouldered by the good citizens of our fair burg alone. And as to the wisdom of putting sidewalks on both sides of Greensboro street, I guess the rush hour congestion on the single east side walk was just too much for some.
I would like to add one
I would like to add one footnote to this discussion. The State BOE reported that only 31% of the voters turned out to vote, the lowest in history. The old record was 42% set back in 1994 when the reps took control of congress and the state house. Here in Orange County we had just under 37% turnout. These facts along with the lack of a big race at the top has to be considered when talking about the results.
I know folks who would not vote for Stein because he had a beard and those including me who wanted to elect someone who could serve the entire 8 years. I think that Stein having to retire after 2.5 years of the term really hurt him.
My husband and I voted
My husband and I voted against district representation since we didn't think anyone was really disenfranchised. I was also leery of drawing yet more lines in the sand--gerrymandering as it were. But I concede Orange County is a huge place and it's hard for northern county residents to drive to all the evening meetings to be heard. I just hope our commissioners, past and future, can think and behave regionally. I would recommend regular civic dialog sessions in each distrrict, plus cross-district dialog sessions. The new UNC School of Government knows how to do this. It costs virtually nothing, engages people who've never been asked their opinions, has proven to be education and effective elsewhere in the country, and is easily managed by non-expert facilitators. It's actually great fun for participants and never confrontational. I'd be happy to get that ball rolling.
I for one was happy to see
I for one was happy to see the district representation initiative pass. We live out in Hillsborough and I often feel like my tax dollars are not well spent within the county (putting sidewalks in on both sides of the street in Carrboro when other areas have none). I'm glad to see that rural Orange and Hillsborough interests will be represented as well. I don't think there was an opposition movement to this initiative because it was a good initiative. I know that many of my neighbors strongly supported it.
Great article, Tom. Just
Great article, Tom. Just one note of correction on the upcoming Carrboro races: Mark Chilton voted against the annexation, and Dan Coleman wasn't on the Board at the time. Therefore, presumably, they won't be subject to any anti-annexation sentiment in next November's town election.
Every town needs a Braying
Every town needs a Braying Voice.
Ya know, I called the Herald
Ya know, I called the Herald Sun to rage about a certain opinion columnist and was told that they get far fewer complaints about this one than someone they used to publish. :)
Nice assessment Tom. What
Nice assessment Tom.
What Mark P points out might indeed be a flaw, but as we know there were several alternatives to Nelson during the primary and he came through that fairly well. I think that was the real test. Dems dominate Carrboro and Orange County politics, and I suspect they are the majority in the Hogan Farms precinct as well.
Although it will likely be an important issue for the annexees for a long time, I think that as time passes and the annexation issues fades into history the influence it will have on the voting behavior of the rest of the county will be de minimis. While annexation policy will be a present issue, I predict some other issue will have a stronger influence on the results of the 2007 Carrboro race. I might be wrong though. It will be interesting to follow.
With this election behind us and the results being what they were, it seems that the vitrole espoused on other local discussion boards and in the columns of Brian Voyce just isn't moving anyone. I think people are just as exhausted as I am with the weekly Voyce rant against Carrboro leadership in the Herald.
Also, anyone who thinks you're calling Baddour a Republican really needs to read your column more carefully. Allen deserves the credit you're giving him for finding voters whereever they are and making them his. The effort is similar to Republican Mark Martin's work to embrace disaffected Dem voters in his race for the Supreme Court. That's smart electoral politics. He did a fantastic job. I say this even as I hope that Stein, one of my personal and professional heroes, pulls it out in next week's provisional ballot count and recount.
The mention of merger is a
The mention of merger is a red herring. Everyone knew this election was a done deal after the primary because there were no other Democrat choices in the general election.
It is my observation that backlash from the Carrboro annexation probably hurt Mr. Nelson's votes the worst. The unprecedented out of county campaign contributions and direct PAC contributions probably would have been an issue for some had it been reasonably reported, but probably would not have changed the counts given the alternatives.
I don't live in Carrboro and don't often comment on Carrboro issues, but I think that your comparison of this election to a future Carrboro BOA race has a flaw. In the BOCC general election, many found the alternatives to be unsuitable. In the future BOA race, there may be suitable alternative candidates to the incumbents. What you predict may come true, but the comparison is not apples to apples.
I agree that I am relatively pleased with the leadership in our area. However, I am discouraged overall by the lack of competition in many of the state and national races here and elsewhere.
M
Beautiful summary, and well
Beautiful summary, and well written.
I'm rendered speechless...
I'm rendered speechless...
Well I stand corrected on
Well I stand corrected on the sidewalks. I still don't understand why you'd pay to put sidewalks in on the other side of the street, but oh well...
To be honest, WillR, I'd be fine with that. Democracy is all about people disagreeing and having to come to compromise. I know my wife and I are just happy that we have better representation now. Hillsborough has its own issues, but it's nice to have some more say in county issues.
Patrick Mulkey said: The
Patrick Mulkey said: The State BOE reported that only 31% of the voters turned out to vote, the lowest in history. The old record was 42% set back in 1994 when the reps took control of congress and the state house. Here in Orange County we had just under 37% turnout. These facts along with the lack of a big race at the top has to be considered when talking about the results.
The statewide 94 vs. 06 "blue moon" turnout was, indeed, quite poor: lots of observations are possible. I never found any county or precinct level data for 94 (the State BOE doesn't have it anyway) so I don't know what Orange did in 94. But in Person County, the other part of Ellie's district, the turnout was better than the statewide average in 94. Vernon Robinson conducted a well-funded, nasty but clearly hopeless campaign against Brad Miller but mostly there were interesting and hotly contested races for County Commissioners, Sheriff and even DA.
The State BOE hasn't posted detailed turnout data for this election yet. But I'll bet that the common wisdom will hold true: interesting races make for turnout.
The local Party did a great job with the races they had to work with--surprisingly, it's very hard to get people excited about judicial races--but an organized opposition to the County Commission districting would have spiked turnout significantly...but even a well reasoned opposition probably would have increased CH-C v. rest of Orange hostility.
I had an op-ed on
I had an op-ed on redistricting in Sunday's N&O, see
http://www.newsobserver.com/559/story/514608.html
I'm not asking whether anyone agrees with the conclusions, but here are 2 trivia questions on Orange County elections.
In the op-ed, I state "Orange County has voted for just one Republican candidate for any partisan office since 1928."
1) Which Republican carried Orange County in 1928?
2) Who was the one Republican since then?
Try guessing without googling.
2) Jim Gardner in 1966? 1)
2) Jim Gardner in 1966?
1) I'm guessing the OC voted for Hoover.
Tom Jensen is two for two.
Tom Jensen is two for two. Congratulations. The OC voted for Gardner for Congress against incumbent Harold Cooley in 1966. And yes, Hoover carried the OC against Al Smith.
I think the Hoover thing is
I think the Hoover thing is fascinating. It seems like the OC must have bought into the same anti-Catholic fervor that the rest of the state did, I can't really see any other explanation for it.
Any OP readers in their 90s who can explain? :)
Speaking of local +
Speaking of local + elections . . .
What's the word on whether Joe Hackney is going to go for Speaker of the House?
I've been distressed by Jim Black for more than a year now and I was hoping and praying he wouldn't win reelection in Mecklenburg County. But he did . . . and now there's a disturbance in the Force. I've heard everything from "no chance he'll be speaker" to "people are afraid of him and his fundraising power."
It strikes me that this is one HUGE opportunity for forward-thinking, ethical elected officials to clean up a big mess and cut loose the albatross that is Jim Black.
What's frustrating, of course, is that We the People apparently have no say in how the legislature conducts its business. Years of backroom dealing have made it all but impossible to find real transparency into the inner workings and hidden mechanisms of our governing bodies.
Which means we're left hoping and pleading that strong leaders will step forward.