Pundit of the year

Think you know what's going to happen on Tuesday? Here's your chance to prove it: OrangePolitics 2005 Election Predictions Contest

Anyone who predicts the winners correctly will be announced here (unless requested otherwise) and whoever comes closest to predicting the ORDER of the winners will be named the Pundit of the Year.

You can play anonymously, but don't you want to take credit for your analytical prowess? Give it a shot! (Remember: vote for who you think will win, not who you want to win.)

Comments

More fun than filling out NCAA tourney brackets!

I predict that regardless who gets elected, all the citizens of Carrboro come out winners. I also wish all of the candidates the best of luck. Voting is tough since they are all good people and have a lot to bring to the table. I hope those who are not currently on advisory boards, volunteering for community events, etc., will become involved in these things. You don't have to be an elected official to make a difference in your community. We need more residents to play an active role in determining the future of our great little town.

By the way, I will post access to the aggregated results on Tuesday at 7:30, to avoid the possibility of influencing any voters before the polls close.

Ruby S.
"By the way, I will post access to the aggregated results on Tuesday at 7:30, to avoid the possibility of influencing any voters before the polls close."

Ruby,

Don't know if I misunderstood but are you saying that results are conceivably available before 7:30 PM on Election Day?

They wouldn't be official tallies -- that's illegal. I assume Ruby was referring to guesstimating via talking to people that have already voted.

No, she's talking about results of the survey.
Click on "Give it a shot!"

I have an opinion on the Chapel Hill races, but those other ones are HARD....

Still fun -- thanks Ruby

Ruby,

It'd probably be way too much work, but it might be interesting for you to break down the poll's results to deliver standings for each of the races. Just a thought.

grrrrr. I keep getting "this page cannot be displayed."

oh well, maybe tomorrow!

melanie

I keep getting a message saying all of the fields are not filled out-but they are
JAcquie

Jacquie, you have to make to make sure to check off winner and loser in two-person races. I had a problem with that at first, too. Hope this helps.

Thanks Joan-got it
Jacquie

We will have the results updated on our Web site — dailytarheel.com — posted as soon as any official estimate is made. That should be ready about 7:30ish based on past years. But given the closeness of several of the races this year, that estimate might prove a bit more elusive.

*2F]S97!H($LN"@``

Yes, that means something!

Is it results time? I'm like a little kid waiting!

A tip for anyone looking at the prediction contest results: the place to look is the column on the far right that says "response average," not the percentages.

Here are the aggregated contest results: http://www.surveymonkey.com/Report.asp?U=148991030363

To me, the Chapel Hill council results show that
OP participants form a quite biased subset of the
total voters. That's OK, but we should be careful
never to extrapolate from ourselves to the general
Chapel Hill voting population.

Joe, you are spot-on and that's why it always amazes me when statements are made about "most citizens of Chapel Hill believe this or that" and "the citizens clearly want" type of statements. I don't think we have a good handle on the thinking of the general public, not to mention the voting public.

Those who participated in the survey clearly didn't see Laurin finishing first or Ed finishing third. As one who had the top four correct - and the 1st/2d order backwards - I think it tells us that Laurin had tremendous support from a wide spectrum of the 12% who voted (Should we be embarrased that Durham had 18%?). She worked hard, got her message out to people and it resonated. The same might be said for Ed and the variety of support that he received.

It's interesting to see the results by precincts and note that Ed and Will ran closest in my precinct of Colonial Heights (Carolina North), 193 to 188. (Of course, we can't tell if the absentee votes from people in the precinct were in the same porportion.) So, was a candidate's stand on Carolina North a major factor in this election?

Thanks again Joe for the word of caution!

I have said the same thing myself, Fred and Joe. The survey results show that many of us think similarly, but that is at least partially due to the fact that we all read the same website. I've never claimed that OP represented the entire community, nor is it trying to.

Maybe next year I'll also poll people about who they are voting for...

 

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