Elections

As if folks haven't already heard enough about elections and politics... a new and interesting development has taken place in terms of redistricting for the state house and senate in Orange County. Though it's too early to really bet on these districts due to the amazing amount of litigation that's likely to take place by Republican detractors of the maps, it might be worth talking about the implications of the new map if it is implemented.

To move away from the heat of the recent campaign but keep the focus on the relevance of campaign spending on local races, I’d like to look back at 1995. After that election, the Herald did an analysis of spending per vote for all the candidates. The results are pretty instructive. (Note: we can’t do that analysis for this year until February when the final spending reports are in.)

First and third place Chapel Hill finishers, Capowski and Andresen, spent almost the same amount per vote: $1.34 and $1.32 respectively

Second place finisher Chilton was low-spender among the winners at only $0.46 per vote. That helps explain his reputation as a savvy campaigner. (Chilton was also a strong proponent of the voluntary spending limits initiated that year by the Greens and Sierra Club).

By popular demand, here's a thread for discussing the significance, or lack, or potential of student votes. Let's start with recent posts by John A.:

From the Town Data Book:

Table 21: UNC Population 1990-2002: Student Body, Employees, & Hospital Employees
Year /Students /UNC Staff/ UNC Hospital Staff
2002 /26,028 /10,115 /5,473

Don't know where all the above folks live, but even if only half lived in Chapel Hill, they would in fact be a powerful voting bloc. And if they voted as a bloc, would these "citizens" be discounted as tools of UNC? What if they voted "Chapel Hill First" as a bloc?

I think the uncertainties of Carolina North is a shared feeling among employees too, but I still think the well organized campaign against Bachman was wrong because there as not been anything to show a conflict of interest. I still wish I had a dollar for every vote that has surprised me because I assumed that someone would vote another way.

And Simon Spero: